[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 155/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            150/105
COMMENT: Solar wind showed some decline to around 400km/sec, 
over the UT day, with an upward trend at the time of issue of 
this report. This upward trend could be due to the last arm of 
the "W" shaped coronal hole. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field was southward by nearly 10nT during 
second half of the UT day. Isolated low level M class activity 
possible. Solar regions 318 and 319 in the southwest and northwest 
quadrants of the solar disk produced C7 and C8 flares respectively. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 29 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3333 2433
      Darwin              15   3333 3333
      Townsville          17   3333 -433
      Learmonth           15   3332 -344
      Canberra            17   3333 -433
      Hobart              19   3433 -432
      Casey(Ant)          12   3333 0---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             24   4432 3445     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
31 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
01 Apr    13    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods observed over past 24 hours. Further 
active periods expected next few days due to coronal hole, then 
declining. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Mar    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar   120    depressed 15% / enhanced 15% 
31 Mar   100    depressed 15% / enhanced 15% 
01 Apr   100    depressed 15% / enhanced 15% 
COMMENT: Further degradation possible local night hours with 
possible brief depressions after local dawn for southern region 
Aus/NZ next few days. Northern region MUFs are enhanced this 
morning after local dawn. Some southern region sites (Christchurch 
and Norfolk Island) remain 15% depressed. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 489 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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