[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 28 10:13:09 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: It looks like yesterdays small discontinuity in the
solar wind was the entry into the coronal hole wind stream with
solar wind speed increasing from 400 to 500km/sec over the past
24 hours. The north-south component of the IMF fluctuated southward
by up to 10nT south between 4 and 14UT, then settled to near
neutral. Solar region 321 in north-east quadrant has low level
M class capability. At about 12 degrees north on the east solar
limb appears to be the leader spot of the return of solar region
296. Despite its size and some degree of magnetic complexity,
this region produced no significant flare activity on its previous
disk transit. More of the region will need to rotate onto disk
before spot distribution/magnetic complexity for this rotation
becomes eveident.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 21 4344 3434
Darwin 16 3333 3434
Townsville 17 4234 3334
Learmonth 21 4333 4443
Canberra 18 3344 3334
Hobart 21 3344 4434
Casey(Ant) 22 4-44 33--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 MAR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1323 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 16 Unsettled to active
29 Mar 16 Unsettled to active
30 Mar 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Active periods observed over past 24 hours. Further
active periods expected next few days due to coronal hole.
Extended period of active levels possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
29 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
30 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 40 depressed 10 to 20% (south Aus/NZ)
28 Mar 90 near predicted monthly values (north Aus)
29 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 27 March
and is current for interval 28 March only. Southern region Aus/NZ
MUFs depressed 15% after local dawn this morning following overnight
coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. Northern Aus region
MUFs near normal. Mild degradation possible local night hours
with possible brief depressions after local dawn for southern
region Aus/NZ next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 52400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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