[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 27 10:30:56 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Small dicontinuity in solar wind speed around 17UT. A W
shaped coronal hole can be seen on SOHO EIT284 imagery.
The 27 day recurrence pattern suggested that an increase in solar
wind speed should have been observed over past 24 hours. The
discontinuity in solar wind speed may signal the entry into the coronal
hole's wind stream but is not as yet conclusive due to wind speed dropping
after disontinuity. A moderate increase in solar wind speed (may be up
to around 600km/sec based on previous rotations) remains expected
over the period 26-02Apr. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was predominately neutral on previous transits
of this coronal hole. Solar region 321 in north-east quadrant
has low level M class capability.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 1222 1222
Darwin 7 1222 1233
Townsville 5 1222 1223
Learmonth 7 2222 2222
Canberra 4 0222 1122
Hobart 5 0222 2122
Casey(Ant) 11 3342 11--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 MAR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2221 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 16 Unsettled to active
28 Mar 16 Unsettled to active
29 Mar 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Active periods local night hours next few days due to
coronal hole. Extended interval of active periods expected
up to 02 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
28 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
29 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 39200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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