[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 26 10:28:40 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 125/78 135/89
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1212
Darwin 4 1111 1222
Townsville 2 1110 1112
Learmonth 3 2110 0212
Canberra 2 0110 0211
Hobart 2 1110 0211
Casey(Ant) 7 2-32 11--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 MAR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10 3243 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 20 active
27 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions declined to quiet levels at all
latitudes over the past 24 hours. Anticipated effects from the
favourably positioned coronal hole have not yet eventuated.
Interplanetary magnetic field polarity fluctuations have shown
an increasing trend in amplitude over the past 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Ionospheric depressions were observed briefly after
local dawn at mid latitudes. Generally good HF conditions are
expected until the onset of coronal hole effects anticipated
within the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 100 about 10% above predicted monthly values
27 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions were observed today, with
some minor depressions observed in S. Aus region after local
dawn. Deteriorating HF conditions are anticipated within the
next 24 hours as an equatorial coronal hole moves into geoeffective
location.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 589 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 93300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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