[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             120/72




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3233 1112
      Darwin               7   3223 1112
      Townsville           7   2233 1112
      Learmonth            7   3223 1102
      Canberra             7   2233 1101
      Hobart               8   2223 123-
      Casey(Ant)          11   3432 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 MAR : 
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Canberra           103   (Major storm)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             24   4246 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
26 Mar    25    active 
27 Mar    20    active 
COMMENT: Conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated 
active periods observed at high latitudes. Solar wind speed and 
IMF Bz flutuations have declined from previously elevated levels 
throughout the UT day, as the previous large coronal hole rotates 
out of geoeffective position. A brief return to active conditions 
is anticipated as a smaller equatorial coronal hole is now positioned 
in the western solar hemisphere. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal-poor    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
27 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Ionospheric depressions and disturbance observed at 
low latitudes local night hours and briefly after local dawn. 
Extensive spread-F conditions and variable localised periods 
of disturbance at high latitudes in association with localised 
geomagnetic disturbance. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Mar    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar    90    near predicted monthly values 
26 Mar   100    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
27 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Declining solar wind parameters indicate improving conditions 
today. Degraded HF conditions are anticipated mid-week as a small 
coronal hole moves into geoeffective location. Isolated disturbances 
may occur at low and high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 603 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   154000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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