[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 03

Wed Mar 19 10:08:02 EST 2003

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/1B    1208UT  probable   all    European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 118/70

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Todays X1 event was again from solar region 314. Subsequent 
viewing of LASCO images showed that yesterdays X1 flare from 
solar region 314 did in fact have a weak mass ejection. However, 
this mass ejection appeared to predominately westward directed, 
slightly above the equator with limited expansion. Geoeffectiveness 
is considered as low from this event. A weak shock signature 
may be observed in the solar wind during second half of 19 Mar. 
Todays X1 event at 1208UT from solar region 314 (S15W46) was 
associated with reported Type II and IV sweeps (inferred mass 
ejection, using ground based radio-wavelengths observation). 
LASCO imagery was available for viewing and showed a stonger 
CME with this event. This time the CME appeared to be southwest 
directed, again with a narrow angle of spread. So, geoeffectiveness 
from this event is again expected to be low. Event parameters 
suggest a weak shock from this event may arrive on 21 Mar. Solar 
region 314 still has good flare potential. A new region has rotated 
onto the disk at 12 degrees south. This region appears small 
but will be watched for development as it did show some activity 
from behind the eastlimb. Also, an erupting solar filament was 
reported at 1320UT on 18 Mar, although the location of this filament 
could not be determined. Solar wind speed remains elevated at 
near 800km/sec due a coronal hole. Proton flux showing enhancement 
after recent X1 class flare actvity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 18 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      22   4444 4323
      Darwin              20   3444 4323
      Townsville          19   3444 4223
      Learmonth           29   5435 5323
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              22   4435 4223
      Casey(Ant)          26   4553 3333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 MAR : 
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           64   (Active)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             39   3464 6445     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar    20    active to minor storm 
20 Mar    20    Active to minor storm 
21 Mar    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 16 March and 
is current for interval 18-20 March. Coronal hole induced activity 
again observed overnight. Active-minor storm conditions expected 
19-20 Mar. Also, weak shock signatures may be observed on 19 
and 21 Mar due to recent mass ejection events. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event. 10Mev proton flux mildly elevated.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are expected around 19-20 Mar, mid 
to high latitudes. Increased absorption was observed around 21UT 
on 17 Mar due to enhanced proton flux from X1 event on that day. 
Second X1 on 18 Mar also producing slight enhanced proton flux. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Mar    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar    70    depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values 
20 Mar    70    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
21 Mar    70    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 18 March 
and is current for interval 18-19 March (SWFs) . Genreally lower 
than normal MUFs expected for southern Aus and NZ region after 
local dawn over next few days. These conditions are expected 
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced geomagnetic 
activity, with the possibility of superimposed weak mass ejection 
signatures. Northern Aus region MUFs should be more robust and 
communicators within this region should use a T index of around 
120. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 697 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   279000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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