[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 20 10:40:03 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3/1N 0953UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: There have been several C and M-class flares over the
past 24 hours, the most significant being an M3.7 level event
at 0934UT. Most of this activity has originated from Active Region
314, now located close to the west solar limb. A type II radio
sweep was observed at 0223UT on the Culgoora and Learmonth spectrographs,
with a reported shock in the lower speed range. LASCO imagery
showed a minor CME early in the UT day. This appeared south-west
directed, probably originating from Region 314. It does not appear
to be geoeffective. High speed coronal hole wind stream effects
are persisting, although solar wind speed decreased from 750
to 650 km/s over the first half of the UT day. Further C and
M class activity is possible from region 314 today, after which
it will have rotated off the visible solar disk. Proton flux
showed a significant upward trend over the UT day.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
19/1625UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 3322 2223
Darwin 12 3332 2333
Townsville 9 3322 2224
Learmonth 9 3322 2222
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 9 3322 2224
Casey(Ant) 19 35-3 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 MAR :
Townsville 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 140 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 26 4445 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 20 active
21 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
22 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 16 March and
is current for interval 18-20 March. Coronal hole induced activity
was observed during the early part of the UT day at high latitudes
only. Active-minor storm conditions are possible today. Also,
weak shock signatures may be observed 20-21 Mar due to recent
mass ejection events.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Increased absorption was observed at mid to high latitudes
due to proton flux enhancement following recent X-class solar
flares. Periods of disturbance were observed at high latitudes
due to coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. Coronal hole
effects are expected to decline after 20 Mar. There is a possibility
of SWF's today and tomorrow due to recent solar flare activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 75 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 85 near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 18 March
and is current for interval 19-20 March. Genreally lower than
normal MUFs expected for southern Aus and NZ region after local
dawn over next few days. These conditions are expected due to
coronal hole high speed wind stream induced geomagnetic activity,
with the possibility of superimposed weak mass ejection signatures.
Short wave fadeouts are possible due to enhanced proton flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 774 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 299000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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