[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 18 09:59:29 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/1B 1905UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: The unexpected X1/1B flare was from solar region 314
in the south-west quadrant of the solar disk. This is a geoeffective
location. However, no LASCO (US space based solar coronagraph
- direct CME observations) imagery was available at the time
of issue of this report. No reports of Type II/IV radio sweeps
(inferred mass ejection) have been recieved, suggesting that
no material has escaped the Sun with this event. Also, event
was reasonably impulsive over the M1 level, only declining slowly
below this level. A weak enhancement in proton flux levels may
be experienced over next 24 hours. Solar wind speed is now quite
fast at 800km/sec, due to coronal hole high speed wind stream.
After fluctuating for most of the day the north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz, was consistently mildly
southward (5nT) after 20UT. Also, some other activity of note
was observed, with solar looping activity visible on Culgoora
H-alpha imagery at around 0200UT on 17 Mar on the southeast(-12 deg.)
limb. Some material appeared to lift off. This may indicate an
active region of interest may rotate onto the solar disk, over
the east limb, at 12 degrees south. Further isolated activity
is expected from 314 and with the possibility of south-east limb
activity, solar forecast has been increased to moderate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 21 3443 4344
Darwin 20 3343 4343
Townsville 20 3343 4343
Learmonth 27 3343 5454
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 31 3454 5444
Casey(Ant) 31 4554 4345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 MAR :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 166 (Severe storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 23 3325 4454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 16 Unsettled to active
19 Mar 20 active to minor storm
20 Mar 20 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 16 March and
is current for interval 18-20 March. Coronal hole induced activity
again observed overnight. Active-minor storm conditions expected
19-20 Mar, due to second arm of corornal hole now just passing
central meridian.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event. Mildly enhanced flux levels possible next 24 hours.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
19 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderately degraded HF conditions are again
likely for mid-high latitudes for today, particularly local night
hours. Further degraded conditions are expected around 19-20
Mar. There is a slight chance for a weak proton enhancement over
next 24 hours impacting polar HF comms circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 120 near to 15% above predicted monthly values (northern Aus)
18 Mar 90 near predicted monthly values (Southern Aus/NZ)
19 Mar 80 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
20 Mar 70 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity again observed
overnight. Mild depressions observed after local dawn for southern
region Australia. Northern region MUFs are not expected to be
affected, and communicators in northern Aus region should use
a T index of 120. A futher degradation in conditions is expected
19-20 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 669 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 277000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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