[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind currently at around 700km/sec. An extended 
period of elevated solar wind speed may be experienced as the 
large coronal hole currently causing elevated wind speed conditions 
appears to be "Y" shaped. We are currently in the wind stream 
from the first branch of the "Y". Solar wind speed may show some 
decline between the branches of the "Y", before returning to 
elevated values. Isolated M class flare activity possible. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 16 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   2224 4443
      Darwin              16   2223 4444
      Townsville          15   2223 4343
      Learmonth           21   2224 4454
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              21   3334 4443
      Casey(Ant)          17   3--4 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 MAR : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           61   (Active)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             120   (Major storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             24   5444 4343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
18 Mar    12    Unsettled 
19 Mar    20    active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 16 March and 
is current for interval 18-20 March. Coronal hole induced activity 
again observed overnight. Activity is expected to decline over 
next few days then return to active-minor storm conditions (19-20 
Mar) due to "Y" shaped coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderately degraded HF conditions are again 
likely for mid-high latitudes for today, particularly local night 
hours, Then improving. A return to degraded conditions is expected 
around 19-20 Mar. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Mar    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar    50    depressed 10 to 15% (southern Aus/NZ)
17 Mar   120    near to 15% above predicted monthly values (north Aus)
18 Mar    90    near predicted monthly values 
19 Mar    80    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 16 March 
and is current for interval 17 March only. Coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic activity again observed overnight. Mild depressions 
observed after local dawn for southern region Australia. Northern 
region MUFs are not expected to be affected, and communicators 
in northern Aus region should use a T index of 120. A further 
degradation in conditions is expected 19-20 Mar. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 618 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   203000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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