[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 16 09:18:38 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar wind currently at around 600km/sec. An extended
period of elevated solar wind speed may be experienced as the
large coronal hole currently causing elevated wind speed conditions
appears to be "Y" shaped. We are currently in the wind stream
from the first branch of the "Y". Solar wind speed may show some
decline between the branches of the "Y", before returning to
elevated values. SOHO EIT imagery shows a bright new region on
the north-east limb of the Sun. Culgoora H-alpha is clouded out
at the time of issue of this report. In addition solar region
314 in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk is showing growth.
Isolated M class flare activity possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 21 4344 4333
Darwin 20 4334 4333
Townsville 20 4334 4333
Learmonth 21 4334 4433
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 21 4344 4332
Casey(Ant) 30 5553 4332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 MAR :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 126 (Severe storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 25 2244 6343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 18 active
17 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced activity again observed overnight.
Activity is expected to decline over next few days then return
to active-minor storm conditions (19-20 Mar) due to "Y" shaped
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderately degraded HF conditions are probable
for mid-high latitudes for today, particularly local night hours,
Then improving. A return to degraded conditions is expected around
19-20 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 85 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 100 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity again observed
overnight. Mild depressions observed after local dawn for southern
region Australia. Northern region MUFs are not expected to be
affected, and communicators in northern Aus region should use
a T index of 120.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 595 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 228000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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