[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 139/93


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99
COMMENT: It appears that the Earth entered the expected coronal 
hole solar wind stream at around 03UT on 14 Mar, one day later 
than expected. Solar wind speed gradually increased after this 
time and is now at 600km/sec. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field was southward 10nT between 05 and 
12 UT. An erupting solar filament (CME associated) was observed 
from the north-east solar quadrant. The CME appeared not to be 
Earth directed. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   3343 4334
      Darwin              18   3343 4334
      Townsville          18   3343 4333
      Learmonth           19   3243 5233
      Canberra            17   2244 ----
      Hobart              15   2343 -334
      Casey(Ant)          21   --53 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            63   (Active)
      Hobart              91   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15   4333 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar    20    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
16 Mar    18    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
17 Mar    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 12 March and 
is current for interval 13-15 March. Coronal hole induced activity 
observed overnight. Further activity expected next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderately degraded HF conditions are probable 
for mid-high latitudes for the next few days, particularly local 
night hours, as the result of anticipated elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels from coronal hole high speed wind stream.. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Mar   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar    80    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
15 Mar   120    near to 15% above normal (Northern Aus region)
16 Mar    70    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
17 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 14 March 
and is current for interval 15 March only. Coronal hole induced 
geomagnetci activity observed overnight. Mild depressions observed 
after local dawn for southern region Australia. Northern region 
MUFs are not expected to be affected, and communicators in northern 
Aus region should use a T index of 120. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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