[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 147/101

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            155/109
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. A few low level 
C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C1.3 at 
1021UT from region 292.  The  solar wind speed fluctuated 
between a maximum value of 440 km/s to a minimum value of 
380 km/s (approx.) with a decreasing trend throughout the 
day.  The north-south component  of  the  inter-planetary 
magnetic field showed mild fluctuations between north and 
south  directions  throughout the UTday.  The  solar wind 
stream  due  to  the  coronal hole  activity  seems to be 
weakening further. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2322 3233
      Darwin               9   2222 2243
      Townsville           7   2222 2132
      Learmonth           10   2212 3243
      Canberra             9   2312 3132
      Hobart               9   2322 3133
      Casey(Ant)          14   34-3 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            68   (Active)
      Hobart              96   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   4113 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar     8    Mostly quiet. 
04 Mar    10    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
05 Mar     8    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly  at  'quiet'  levels during the next three days. 
However, isolated  unsettled periods may be observed on 
4 March. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT:  The HF conditions  are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next three days.  However, short periods 
of minor degradations may be observed on high latitudes on 
04 March. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Mar    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressoins and degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar    95    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
04 Mar    90    near predicted monthly values 
05 Mar    95    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT:  The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next three days. However, short periods 
of  minor  degradations  may be  observed  on 04 March in 
Southern Australian/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    76500 K  
Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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