[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 138/92

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Mar             03 Mar             04 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            155/109
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. A few C-class 
flares were observed, the largest being a C5.1 at 0136UT 
from region 297(S16E67). Region 296(N13E78) produced two 
C-class flares (a C1.9 at  1542UT and a C3.5 at 1909UT). 
Region 292,   which is   on  the  west limb  now, also 
produced two  C-flares  (a C2.4  at 0842UT and a C3.0 at 
1432UT). The solar wind  speed  gradually decreased from 
approximately 460 km/s  to 400 km/s during the  UTday by 
the time of writing this report. The north-south component 
of the  inter-planetary   magnetic  field   showed   mild 
fluctuations between north and south directions throughout 
the UTday. The solar  wind  stream due to the coronal hole 
activity seems to be weakening further. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3223 3333
      Darwin              11   3222 3333
      Townsville          14   3223 4333
      Learmonth           13   3222 4332
      Canberra            11   3222 3333
      Hobart              13   3222 3433
      Casey(Ant)          18   3--4 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            65   (Active)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices 
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             17   3234 3434     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Mar    10    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
03 Mar     8    Mostly quiet. 
04 Mar     8    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT:  The coronal  hole activity seems to be showing 
further decline. The geomagnetic activity is expected to 
slow down  further and  remain mostly  at 'quiet' levels 
during the next three days. However, isolated unsettled 
periods may be observed on 2 March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Mar    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Mar    90    near predicted monthly values 
03 Mar    95    about 5% below predicted monthly values 
04 Mar    95    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  
Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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