[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 29 08:32:45 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued fast at 650 to 750 km/sec over
past 24 hours. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated southward over the past 24 hours, and
was southward 10nT during interval 07-16UT. Elevated solar wind
conditions expected to persist due to broad width of coronal hole
producing this wind stream. Solar region 397 on near north-east limb
has rotated further onto solar disk. At this stage, spot distribution is
open, with a large leader spot followed by scattered trailer
spots. As the region has an open configuration , flare probability
does not seem that high. This may change if spot development
occurs, possibly most likely in the trailers spots of this region.
Isolated M class flare activity possble.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 23 3445 4322
Darwin 24 3445 4332
Townsville - ---- ----
Learmonth 22 3345 4323
Canberra 26 3436 4322
Hobart 26 3436 4322
Casey(Ant) 19 3344 33--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JUN :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 134 (Severe storm)
Hobart 162 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 28 4464 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 20 Active, isolated minor storm periods.
30 Jun 20 Active, isolated minor storm periods.
01 Jul 21 Active, isolated minor storm periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 25 June and
is current for interval 28-30 June. Active to minor storm periods
expected next three days due to coronal hole wind stream. A pulsation
storm is in progress in asscoiation with this wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
30 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
01 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
Spread F observed local night at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 70 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 70 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 70 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 26 June
and is current for interval 27-29 June. Degraded HF comms quality
observed local night hours at some southern region sites last
night. Mild depressions possible after local dawn this morning
southern Aus/NZ region. A generally degraded interval is over
the next few days for southern Aus/NZ region due to solar coronal
hole high speed wind stream. Northern Aus region MUFs expected
to again be near to 15% above predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.6E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 686 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 324000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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