[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jun             01 Jul             02 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speed fast (due to coronal hole) over past 
24 hours at 750km/sec. The north component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was southward 5 to 10nT for much of the UT day. 
Solar wind speed expected to ease by 02 Jul.  The large solar 
region of interest (region 397 old 375), has yet to produce significant 
flare activity for this rotation. The spot configuration of this 
region remains relatively open, with some degree of magnetic polarity 
mixing evident in the middle/trailer area. Isolated M class 
activity possible. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 29 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   4344 3322
      Darwin              17   4334 3322
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           17   4343 3322
      Canberra            17   3344 3322
      Hobart              17   3344 3323
      Casey(Ant)          16   4433 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 JUN : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           87   (Minor storm)
      Canberra           176   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             178   (Severe storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             32   3536 5444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jun    20    Active, chance of isolated minor storm periods. 
01 Jul    18    Unsettled to active 
02 Jul    15    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 25 June and 
is current for interval 28-30 June. Coronal hole wind stream 
induced geomagnetic activity expected to have declining trend 
over next three days. Pulsation storm activity again observed
yesterday in association with high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected mid to high latitudes,
with an improving trend. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jun    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jun    80    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
01 Jul    80    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
02 Jul    80    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions in southern Aus region ended yesterday 
with mildly enhanced codnitions observred. MUFs now expected 
to be near to 10% above predicted monthly values. Degarded comms 
quality may still be experienced during local night hours southern 
Aus region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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