[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 27 08:38:00 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was moderately elevated until 12UT,
when the Earth (earlier than expected) entered the coronal hole
wind stream from the large equatorial coronal hole, now located
in the centre of the solar disk (SEC SXI imagery). Solar wind
speed gradually rose from 550km/sec at 12 UT to 750 km/sec at
time of issue of this report. The north south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field became mildly southward (5-10nT)
after coronal hole wind stream entry. Also, the solar wind toward/away
phi angle (from ACE data) showed a 180 degree flip from toward
to away from the Sun, as we entered the the coronal hole's wind
stream. Such direction re-orientations can be associated with
geomagnetic disturbances. SEC SXI imagery also shows a decent
"xray emission plume" on the north-east limb, which is the anticipated
return of old SEC region 375. No spots visible yet. Solar activity
may increase in coming days as SEC GOES xray flux satellite data is
showing increasing variability and some C class flare activity which are
presumed to originate from this returning region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 19 3334 5223
Darwin 19 3334 5223
Townsville - ---- ----
Learmonth 19 3334 5222
Canberra 19 2334 5322
Hobart 14 2334 4213
Casey(Ant) 20 3333 53--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 JUN :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 62 (Active)
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19 3343 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 35 Active to minor storm conditions
28 Jun 25 Active, with minor storm periods.
29 Jun 20 Active, isolated minor storm periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 25 June and
is current for interval 28-30 June. Coronal hole high speed wind
stream entry earlier than expected. Minor storm period observed
on entry into wind stream. Active to minor storm periods expected
next three days due to this wind stream. Increased geomagnetic
pulsation activity (pulsation storm) is expected over the next few
days due to the previously observed correlation between coronal
hole wind streams and pulsation activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
28 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
29 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected mid to high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Spread F observed local night hours.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 70 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions possible after local dawn this morning
southern Aus/NZ region. A generally degraded interval is expected
over the next few days for southern Aus/NZ region as the Earth entered
a coronal hole wind stream at about 12UT on 26 June. Northern
Aus region MUFs expected to be near to 15% above predicted monthly
values. Also, shortwave fadeout activity may increase over next
few days, due to likelyhood of previously active solar region
rotating onto solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.4E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list