[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 26 09:23:27 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is currently moderately elevated due
to solar coronal holes. The brief lull in elevated solar wind
conditions expected on 26 June may not eventuate. Further high
speed wind stream effects are expected to begin on 28 June
when its is anticipated that the Earth will enter another coronal
hole high speed wind stream from the large coronal hole currently
near the centre of the solar disk (visible in SEC SXI imagery).
A slowly declining C3 flare at around 1630UT was the only solar
activity of note over the past 24 hours. It has been reported that
this activity was correlated with a CME from behind the north
east-limb. Note that a previously very flare active solar region
(SEC number 375) may return to the north-east limb (latitude 12
deg North) around 27 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 16 2333 2443
Darwin 14 2333 2343
Townsville 13 3233 3---
Learmonth 11 2333 2---
Canberra 17 2343 2443
Hobart 17 2343 2442
Casey(Ant) 22 3433 2453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 JUN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 73 (Active)
Hobart 72 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 31 4555 5333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 15 Unsettled to active
27 Jun 20 Active
28 Jun 25 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 25 June and
is current for interval 28-30 June. Coronal hole high speed stream
effects are expected to cause active periods. The brief lull
in activity expected for 26 June looks like not eventuating due
to sustained elevated solar wind speeds. A stronger period of
disturbed activity is expected (with active to minor storm conditions)
beginning 27/28 Jun due to a large coronal hole currently near
the centre of the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
28 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradion periods possible at mid to
high latitudes. A stronger degradation is epected on/after 28
Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 60 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 60 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 60 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions possible after local dawn this morning
southern Aus/NZ region. A degraded interval is expected after
28 Jun due to a coronal hole wind stream. Also, A shortwave fadeout
activity may increase on/after 27 Jun if a previously flare productive
region returns to the solar disk.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 198000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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