[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 25 08:33:26 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Low Low Low-Moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is currently moderately elevated due
to previous solar coronal holes. A brief lull in elevated solar
wind conditions may be experienced around 26 June, before the
28 June when its is anticipated that the Earth will enter another
coronal hole high speed wind stream from the large isolated coronal
hole currently in the Sun's eastern solar hemisphere (visible
in SEC SXI and SOHO EIT284 imagery). The Sun has again been flare-quiet
over past 24 hours. Note that a previously very flare active
solar region (SEC number 375) may return to the north-east limb
(latitude 12 deg North) around 27 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 17 3344 3323
Darwin 17 3344 4222
Townsville 21 3344 ----
Learmonth 19 3335 -323
Canberra 21 3354 -323
Hobart 21 3354 -322
Casey(Ant) 12 3333 22--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JUN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20 4544 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 17 Unsettled to active
26 Jun 13 Unsettled
27 Jun 20 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 23 June and
is current for interval 23-25 June. Coronal hole high speed stream
effects are expected to cause active periods. A brief lull in
activity may be experienced aorund 26 Jun before a stronger period
of disturbed activity is expected (with active to minor storm
conditions) beginning 27/28 Jun due to large transequatorial
coronal hole currently in eastern solar hemisphere.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradion periods possible at mid to
high latitudes. A stronger degradation is epected on/after 28
Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 80 about 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Jun 75 near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 60 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs became unexpectedly enhanced yesterday in the Australian
region. These enhanced conditions may continue today. Spread F
was observed on local night southern Aus region iongrams, indicating
degraded conditions were likely local night hours. Note that
a degraded interval is expected after 28 Jun due to a coronal
hole wind stream. Also, shortwave fadeout activity may increase
on/after 27 Jun if a previously flare productive region returns
to the solar disk.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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