[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is currently moderately elevated due 
to solar coronal holes, and is expected to remain elevated but 
with a declining trend over next few days. However, another very 
large coronal hole is currently in the eastern solar hemisphere. 
Due to this hole's size and solar location, a strong wind stream 
is expected from this hole starting around 28 Jun. The Sun has 
again been relatively quiet over past 24 hours, and isolated 
low level M class flaring is possible. Note that a previously 
very flare active solar region (SEC number 375) may return to 
the north-east limb (around latitude 12 deg North) around 27 Jun. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3324 2322
      Darwin              12   3323 2333
      Townsville          12   3324 2222
      Learmonth           16   4324 2333
      Canberra            13   3324 2322
      Hobart              13   3324 2322
      Casey(Ant)          15   4432 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 JUN : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16   3343 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
25 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
26 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 23 June and 
is current for interval 23-25 June. Coronal hole high speed stream 
effects are expected to cause active periods, with a declining 
trend in activity over next two to three days. A brief lull in 
activity may be experienced aorund 26 Jun before a stronger period 
of disturbed activity is expected (with active to minor storm 
conditions) beginning 28 Jun due to large trans equatorial coronal 
hole currently in eastern solar hemisphere. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradion periods possible at mid to 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jun    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun    65    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
25 Jun    65    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
26 Jun    65    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Brief mild depressions are expected alfer local dawn over 
next few days, restricted to southern Aus/NZ region. Northern Aus 
region MUFs expected to be near to 15% above predicted monthly values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   MSG
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  MSG
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
       X-ray background: MSG
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 532 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   187000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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