[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 14 10:22:25 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.6 12/2127UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.1 0204UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7/SF 0437UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.8/SF 0645UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: Further M-class flare activity is possible from solar
regions 375 and 380.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 365 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 15 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 1211 1223
Darwin 5 2221 1123
Townsville 3 1111 12--
Learmonth 4 2211 0223
Canberra 2 1100 0123
Hobart 2 0101 0122
Casey(Ant) 7 2221 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JUN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 48 (Unsettled)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 2232 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 16 Unsettled to active
15 Jun 16 Unsettled to active
16 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Active and isolated minor storm periods are possible
for the next two days as the result of glancing blows from recent
CME activity and a possible increase in solar wind speed from
a small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Slight depressions are expected at times over the next
two days as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic
activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 75 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
15 Jun 75 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
16 Jun 80 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 12 June
and is current for interval 12-14 June (SWFs) . Slight depressions
are expected at times over the next two days as the result of
anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 520 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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