[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    0609UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jun             16 Jun             17 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

Previously X-flare(s) producing region 365 is returning to the
south-east limb and further flare activity is possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 14 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      26   2335 5443
      Darwin              19   2324 4443
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           15   3--- ----
      Canberra            23   2235 5433
      Hobart               7   2--- ----
      Casey(Ant)          15   3--- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JUN : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   3212 2344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jun    25    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
16 Jun    16    Unsettled to active 
17 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters suggest a CME impacted the Earth 
around 14UT on 14 June. The IMF remained predominantly northward 
thereafter, resulting in only minor storm levels of geomagnetic 
activity. Further minor storm periods are possible for 15 June. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Slight depressions are expected at times for 15 June 
as the result of mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jun    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jun    65    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
16 Jun    75    near predicted monthly values 
17 Jun    80    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slight depressions are expected at times for 15 June 
as the result of mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    63200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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