[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M7.3/1N    0130UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
M2.9/SF 11/2151UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
M1.1/SF    1712UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 164/118


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             130/84
COMMENT: Further M- and X-class flare activity is possible from 
solar regions 375 and 380. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1121 2112
      Darwin               6   2122 2222
      Townsville           4   1121 2112
      Learmonth            4   1121 2112
      Canberra             4   1121 2111
      Hobart               4   1221 2111
      Casey(Ant)           8   2232 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 JUN : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           51   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           112   (Major storm)
      Hobart              99   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   3343 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun    20    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
14 Jun    20    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
15 Jun    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Active to minor storm periods are possible for the next 
few days as the result of glancing blows from recent CME activity 
and a possible increase in solar wind speed from a small coronal 
hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected at times over the next 
few days as the result of anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity 
levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jun    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun    80    Enhanced 15% to depressed 5-15%. 
14 Jun    70    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
15 Jun    70    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 12 June 
and is current for interval 12-14 June (SWFs) . Mild depressions 
are expected at times over the next few days as the result of 
anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: C3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 649 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   184000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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