[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 12 10:02:51 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED** MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.3/2B 0002UT probable all West Pacific
X1.6/1N 2015UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
M1.8/1F 1743UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 193/145
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Further M- and X-class flare activity is possible from
solar regions 375 and 380.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 2332 2222
Darwin 10 3332 2222
Townsville 8 2232 2222
Learmonth 10 2333 2222
Canberra 8 2232 2222
Hobart 7 2232 2211
Casey(Ant) 11 3332 22--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JUN :
Townsville 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 103 (Major storm)
Hobart 103 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 27 4364 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 20 Initially quiet to unsettled with the chance
of active to minor storm periods later in the
UT day.
13 Jun 25 Unsettled to active with the chance of minor
storm periods.
14 Jun 25 Unsettled to active with the chance of minor
storm periods.
COMMENT: Active to minor storm periods are possible for the next
few days as the result of glancing blows from recent CME activity
and a possible increase in solar wind speed from a small coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected at times over the next
few days as the result of anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity
levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 80 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
13 Jun 70 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 70 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected at times over the next
few days as the result of anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity
levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 686 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 241000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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