[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
X1.3/2B    0002UT  probable   all    West Pacific
X1.6/1N    2015UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American
M1.8/1F    1743UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 193/145


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            150/105            145/99
COMMENT: Further M- and X-class flare activity is possible from 
solar regions 375 and 380. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2332 2222
      Darwin              10   3332 2222
      Townsville           8   2232 2222
      Learmonth           10   2333 2222
      Canberra             8   2232 2222
      Hobart               7   2232 2211
      Casey(Ant)          11   3332 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JUN : 
      Townsville          15   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           103   (Major storm)
      Hobart             103   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             27   4364 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun    20    Initially quiet to unsettled with the chance 
                of active to minor storm periods later in the 
                UT day. 
13 Jun    25    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
14 Jun    25    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
COMMENT: Active to minor storm periods are possible for the next 
few days as the result of glancing blows from recent CME activity 
and a possible increase in solar wind speed from a small coronal 
hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
13 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
14 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected at times over the next 
few days as the result of anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity 
levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jun    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun    80    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
13 Jun    70    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
14 Jun    70    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected at times over the next 
few days as the result of anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity 
levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 686 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   241000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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