[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 11 09:56:17 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 0255UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.9 0838UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M5.4 1112UT possible lower European
M2.3 1301UT possible lower European
M2.3 1437UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.2 1630UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M6.1 1815UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 2214UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 177/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar regions 375 and 380 maintain complex magnetic
structures. A number of significant M-class flares have been
observed over the past 24 hours. Region 375 produced an M5 level
flare at 1112UT and an M6 level flare at 1815UT. Available LASCO
C3 imagery is limited, but partial halo CME's were observed in
the early and mid periods of the UT day. Duration of the flare
events has been variable, but some of the significant M-class
events were long duration. Although no Type II radio sweeps were
reported, there is a possibility earth-directed mass ejections
resulting from today's activity. Continuing M- and possible X-class
flare activity is expected for Jun 11.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 14 3343 3222
Darwin 14 3343 3223
Townsville 11 3233 3223
Learmonth 14 3343 3222
Canberra 13 3243 3222
Hobart 13 3243 3222
Casey(Ant) 17 4443 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JUN :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 87 (Minor storm)
Hobart 96 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28 3444 3346
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 20 active
12 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Conditions were mostly unsettled with isolated active
periods at low to mid latitudes, and isolated minor storm periods
at high latitudes. The geomagnetic field is still under the influence
of a high speed coronal hole wind stream. Solar wind speed remained
relatively steady at 650-700 km/s over the UT day. Interplanetary
magnetic field maintained a slightly negative bias with mild
fluctuations. Active periods resulted from sustained southward
Bz polarity during the early part of the UT day. Coronal hole
wind stream effects will continue today, but should decline over
the next few days as the originating solar region rotates out
of geoeffective range.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed N Aus region and
isolated depressions observed S Aus region. Generally good HF
conditions at low latitudes and continuing poor conditions observed
and expected at high latitudes. There is a possibility of a proton
induced absorption event at high latitudes within the next few
days, resulting from recent solar activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Mild overnight depressions.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Isolated overnight depressions.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of disturbance. Spread-F conditions
observed at all stations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 80 near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions mostly near normal at low to mid latitudes.
Expect generally improving HF conditions after today, as high
speed coronal hole wind stream effects decline. Antarctic regions
will still experience periods of disturbance over the next few
days. There is a possibilty of a proton induced absorption event
at high latitudes within the next few days as a result of recent
solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 679 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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