[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 5 09:55:54 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is dominated by a large southern
hemisphere coronal hole. Region 375 in the eastern hemisphere
is the only area of significant magnetic complexity. At present
it appears capable of C to M class flare activity. A weak semi-halo
CME was observed in LASCO imagery early in the UT day, with a
stronger southwest directed ejection shortly after. These events
were possibly associated with an eruptive feature in the southwestern
solar sector, within the coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 16 3334 3333
Darwin 15 3333 3333
Townsville 16 3334 3332
Learmonth 16 3334 3332
Canberra 18 4334 3333
Hobart 14 3224 3333
Casey(Ant) 19 4433 33--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JUN :
Townsville 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 84 (Minor storm)
Canberra 187 (Severe storm)
Hobart 178 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26 4344 4445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 25 active
06 Jun 25 active
07 Jun 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: Conditions in the Australasian region were predominantly
quiet to unsettled with a minor storm period at high latitudes.
Solar wind speed continues to increase, but interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuations have not been more than moderately southward
during the past 24 hours. Coronal hole high speed wind stream
induced activity is expected for next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Fair-poor
06 Jun Normal Normal Fair-poor
07 Jun Normal Normal Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be degraded at mid to high
latitudes over next few days due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 70 near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 70 near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 60 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 2 June
and is current for interval 3-5 June. Northern Aus region MUFS
have been near predicted monthly values and are expected to remain
mostly unaffected by coronal hole high speed wind stream induced
geomagnetic activity. Expect degraded conditions with associated
geomagnetic activity at high latitudes for at least the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 793 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 333000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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