[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jun             05 Jun             06 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed elevated at 800km/sec due to large 
"U" shaped coronal hole in southern solar hemisphere. Solar region 
of interest 375 has reamined relatively quiet over past 24 hours 
with just a few small subflares. These region remains a likely 
source of M class flare activity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3333 3334
      Darwin              16   3333 4333
      Townsville          15   3333 4324
      Learmonth           15   3333 3335
      Canberra            16   3334 3334
      Hobart              15   3324 3334
      Casey(Ant)          21   5433 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 JUN : 
      Townsville          29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           59   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           181   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             159   (Severe storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             39   5466 4434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jun    25    active 
05 Jun    25    active 
06 Jun    25    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 31 May and 
is current for interval 2-4 June. Coronal hole high speed wind 
stream induced activity expected next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be degraded at mid to high 
latitudes over next few days due to coronal hole high speed wind 
stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jun    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed, spread F and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jun    55    depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values (South Aus)
04 Jun    75    near predicted monthly values (North Aus)
05 Jun    55    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Jun    55    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 2 June 
and is current for interval 3-5 June. Southern region MUFs expected 
to be depressed 15% after local dawn over the next few days. 
Northern Aus region MUFS have been near predicted monthly values 
and are expected to remin mostly unaffected by coronal hole high 
speed wind stream induced geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 719 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   308000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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