[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jun             07 Jun             08 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             118/70             120/72
COMMENT: There is a possibility of C- to M-class flare activity 
from solar region 375, which maintains moderate magnetic complexity. 
The dominant feature is still a large coronal hole. Although 
solar wind parameters are at present declining, further elevation 
is expected after today as a second, trans-equatorial section 
of this feature rotates into geoeffective position. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2233 3322
      Darwin              10   2232 3323
      Townsville           9   2223 3221
      Learmonth           11   2233 3322
      Canberra            11   2233 3321
      Hobart              11   2233 3321
      Casey(Ant)          14   3322 34--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 JUN : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Canberra           101   (Major storm)
      Hobart             127   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             21   4334 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
07 Jun    25    active 
08 Jun    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: Declining solar wind parameters over the UT day resulted 
in mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with isolated unsettled 
periods at high latitudes. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 
today, but further disturbance is expected later as a trans-equatorial 
section of the present coronal hole rotates into geoeffective 
position. A minor step increase in proton flux was observed after 
17UT. This may be a result of the eruptive event observed yesterday. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor     
08 Jun      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed at mid latitudes. 
HF conditions expected to be degraded at mid to high latitudes 
over next few days due to coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jun    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values with 
      isolated extended periods of disturbance.



Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jun    65    near predicted monthly values 
07 Jun    60    5 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
08 Jun    50    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed N and S Aus regions. 
Extensive spread-F observed S Ocean/Antarctic regions. Degraded 
HF conditions expected after today due to further coronal hole 
induced geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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