[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jul             15 Jul             16 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: Newly numbered region 409 has rotated around the east 
limb and is capable of producing further M-class flare activity. 
Solar wind parameters suggest the coronal hole wind stream presently 
effecting the Earth is declining. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 13 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3332 2323
      Darwin              15   4332 2423
      Townsville          10   3232 2322
      Learmonth           10   3222 1423
      Canberra            10   3232 2322
      Hobart               9   3232 2313
      Casey(Ant)          16   4433 2-22
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           114   (Major storm)
      Hobart             116   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             46   6764 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jul    12    Unsettled 
15 Jul    20    Quiet to unsettled with possible active and isolated 
                minor storm periods. 
16 Jul    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly unsettled to active 
over the past 24 hours as the coronal hole solar wind stream 
declines. Activity should remain mostly unsettled for 14 July, 
with activity expected to increase slightly for 15-16 July due 
to another coronal hole solar wind stream and possible transient 
from a recent disappearing solar filament. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next two 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jul    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next two 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 624 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   289000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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