[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M1.4/SF    1906UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: A new region rotating onto the visible disk in the north-east 
quadrant produced an M-class flare at 1906UT on 12 July and is 
likely to produce further M-class flare activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 12 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      25   4553 3234
      Darwin              34   5653 30--
      Townsville          33   4654 4234
      Learmonth           30   5554 3335
      Canberra            30   4653 3333
      Hobart              26   4553 3333
      Casey(Ant)          21   4443 33-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 JUL : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            54   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              73   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             48                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        36
           Planetary             46   3565 5455     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
14 Jul    12    Unsettled 
15 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The IMF turned moderately southward during the early 
part of the UT day of 12 July, resulting in minor to major storm 
periods. The IMF has been predominantly northward during the 
latter part of 12 July, resulting in quieter geomagnetic activity 
levels. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline over the 
next couple of days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions were observed at times 
during 12 July for mid-high latitude regions. Mostly normal conditions 
are expected to for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jul    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to slightly
      depressed at times during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to slightly
      depressed at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions were observed at times 
during 12 July for southern Aus/NZ regions. Mostly normal conditions 
are expected to for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:   10.8 p/cc  Temp:    31000 K  Bz:  -8 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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