[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jul             16 Jul             17 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: Region 409 is capable of producing M-class flare activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2232 2333
      Darwin               8   2222 2233
      Townsville           9   2232 2234
      Learmonth           10   2232 2332
      Canberra             9   1232 2333
      Hobart               9   1232 1333
      Casey(Ant)          12   3232 33-2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            42   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   3343 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jul    20    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
16 Jul    20    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
17 Jul    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: A coronal hole solar wind stream is expected to impact 
the Earth during 15 July and result in mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels, with isolated minor storm levels possible. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
16 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
17 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Slight depressions may be observed at mid-high latitudes 
at times for 15-16 July due to anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jul    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      depressed up to 15% at times during local night,
      otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jul    70    Depressed 5-15% at times otherwise near predicted 
                monthly values. 
16 Jul    70    Depressed 5-15% at times otherwise near predicted 
                monthly values. 
17 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slight depressions may be observed for southern regions 
at times for 15-16 July due to anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 568 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   169000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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