[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 5 08:32:21 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 141/95 144/98 145/99
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to rise and is now at 700km/sec.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
fluctuated southward 5nT for most of the uT day. Elevated solar
wind speeds are from a south polar extension coronal hole and
are expected to continue over next two days. Solar regions 397
and 400 both produced C class xray events, over the past 24 hours.
Both these regions are M class xray flare capable. A possible
very weak Type II event was visible on the Culgoora Spectrograph
starting at 2118UT and ending at 2123 UT, drifting from 151Mhz
down to 83Mhz, giving a shock speed of 500km/sec. However, as
this forecaster was uncertain whether it is a genuine Type II
or just structure in the the weak noise storm, combined with
perhaps near dawn articfacts, no PRESTO alert message will be
issued. No xray event was in progress around the time of the
possible Type II.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 17 4334 3323
Darwin 20 4434 3333
Townsville 15 3334 3323
Learmonth 17 4334 3323
Canberra 15 3334 3323
Hobart 15 3334 3322
Casey(Ant) 22 4443 3---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JUL :
Townsville 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 106 (Major storm)
Hobart 127 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 3323 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 20 Active, chance of isolated minor storm periods.
06 Jul 20 Active.
07 Jul 18 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 2 July and
is current for interval 3-6 July. Active conditions are then
expected next two days then declining. Chance for isolated minor
storm periods today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are expected at mid to high latitudes
again today. Mid to Low latitudes are expected to remain near
normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% early in the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 4 July
and is current for interval 4-6 July (SWFs) . Southern Aus/NZ
region HF communication conditions expected to be mild to moderately
degraded particularly during local night hours, and after local
dawn. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain near normal.
Chance of an isolated shortwave fadeouts on daylight circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 532 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 184000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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