[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 6 08:36:14 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 144/98 148/102 148/102
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains eevated at 700km/sec. Solar
wind expected to decline later today. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field again fluctuated southward
5nT for most of the UT day. M class flare activity possible from
solar regions 397 and 400. A C7 flare occured on 04 July at 1455UT,
this event was reported to be associated with a Type II radio
sweep. The region of origin was solar region 400 then at N05E32.
The size of this event and the regions eastward location will
reduce the geoeffectiveness of any associated mass ejection.
A minor shock in the solar wind is possible on late
06 July/early 07 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 3333 3322
Darwin 13 3332 3332
Townsville 13 3333 3322
Learmonth 13 3332 3333
Canberra 13 3333 3322
Hobart 12 2333 3322
Casey(Ant) 15 3432 3---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 JUL :
Townsville 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 130 (Severe storm)
Hobart 123 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 25 4535 4434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 20 Active.
07 Jul 18 Unsettled to active
08 Jul 15 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 2 July and
is current for interval 3-6 July. Active conditions expected
today then a decline in activity over next few days. A very weak
impulse is possible on late 06 July/early 07 July due to a
possible mass ejection event on 04 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are expected at mid to high latitudes
again today, with an improving trend. Mid to Low latitudes are
expected to remain near normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 4 July
and is current for interval 4-6 July (SWFs) . MUFs are expected
to remain mostly near predicted monthly values to slightly above.
Southern Aus/NZ HF communications quality may be mildly to moderately
degraded particularly during local night hours, and after local
dawn. Chance of an isolated shortwave fadeouts on daylight circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 742 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 342000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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