[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             138/92             141/95
COMMENT: Solar wind speed now at 600km/sec and the north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward 
5nT for most of the uT day. Elevated solar wind speeds are from 
a south polar extension coronal hole and are expected to continue 
over next fe days. No Significant solar flare activity over past 
24 hours. Solar region 397 has shown some increasing magnetic 
complexity in the trailer spots. A very weak noise storm is visible 
on the Culgoora Spectrograph this morning. Another solar region 
SEC number 400, located near the solar equator toward the east 
solar limb, is showing development. Isolated M class flare activity 
becoming more likely. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2122 2333
      Darwin               9   2222 2334
      Townsville           8   2112 2334
      Learmonth            9   2122 3332
      Canberra             7   1112 2333
      Hobart               9   1113 3333
      Casey(Ant)          14   2222 2353
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   1334 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul    20    Active, chance of isolated minor storm periods. 
05 Jul    20    Active, chance of isolated minor storm periods. 
06 Jul    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 2 July and 
is current for interval 3-6 July. Active conditions are then 
expected 4-5 July with chance for isolated minor storm periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are expected at mid to high latitudes 
over coming days. Mid to Low latitudes are expected to remain 
near normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jul    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul    75    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: SOuthern Aus/NZ region HF communication conditions expected 
to be mild to modeerately degraded over coming days particularly 
local night hours, and after local dawn. Norther Aus region MUFs 
expected to remain near normal. Chance of an isolated shortwave 
fadeouts on daylight circuits. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B4.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 494 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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