[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 3 08:48:15 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3/1F 0728UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar wind speed initially continued to decline from 550 to
450km/sec and then began a rise back to 550km/sec toward end of the UT
day. This rise may be an early than expected entry into a coronal
hole wind stream that was expected to be entered 03/04 July.
This coronal hole is visible as a south-polar extension hole
in SEC SXI imagery. The north south component of the IMF was
southward 5nT after about 6UT. Large solar region 397 in the
north-east solar quadrant produced the M3 event. 397 region evolution
has been mixed, with some growth reported in trailer spots, whilst
decay has been reported in middle spots. A weak radio noise storm
has been observed so far this morning on the Culgoora Spectrograph.
Isolated M class activity probable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 2223 2131
Darwin 9 2223 2231
Townsville 7 1123 2132
Learmonth 8 2223 2131
Canberra 8 2223 2131
Hobart 7 1223 2221
Casey(Ant) 9 2333 2121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 13 3432 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 15 Unsettled to active
04 Jul 20 Active, chance of isolated minor storm periods.
05 Jul 20 Active, chance of isolated minor storm periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 2 July and
is current for interval 3-6 July. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be initially unsettled today then becoming active later in UT
day. Active conditions are then expected 4-5 July with chance
for isolated minor storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
05 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: A gradual return to degraded conditions is expected
at mid to high latitudes over coming days. Mid to Low latitudes
are expected to remain near normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 75 near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 75 near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Southern region conditions may deteriorate again, particularly
local night hours, and after local dawn, from 04 July due to
activity induced by another coronal hole wind stream. Chance
of an isolated shortwave fadeouts on daylight circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 647 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 181000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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