[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** GREEN **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jul             03 Jul             04 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 750 to 550km/sec over 
the UT day as the Earth leaves a coronal hole wind stream. A 
brief lull in wind conditions is expected before the Earth enters 
yet another coronal hole wind stream late 03/04 July. This coronal 
hole is visible as a south-polar extension hole in SEC SXI imagery, 
just passing the solar central meridian. The north south component 
of the IMF was southward 5nT between 5 and 14 UT. Large solar 
region 397 in the north-east solar quadrant may produce an isolated 
M class event. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2321 2122
      Darwin               7   2321 2221
      Townsville           6   2321 2112
      Learmonth            7   2322 2122
      Canberra             6   2321 2111
      Hobart               6   2321 2112
      Casey(Ant)          11   3332 2132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 JUL : 
      Townsville          21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           63   (Active)
      Canberra           112   (Major storm)
      Hobart             108   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             20   4454 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jul    13    Unsettled 
03 Jul    15    Unsettled to active 
04 Jul    20    Active 
COMMENT: A brief lull in geomagnetic activity is expected over 
the next two days. A return to active conditions is expected 
04 July due to another coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected next two days, then 
a gradual return to degraded conditins at mid to high latitudes 
on 04 Jul. Mid to Low latitudes are expected to remain near normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jul    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jul    75    near predicted monthly values 
03 Jul    75    near predicted monthly values 
04 Jul    75    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
today, with improved conditions for southern Australian region 
after recent mild degradation. Southern region conditions may 
deteriorate again after 04 July due to activity induced by another 
coronal hole wind stream. Chance of an isolated shortwave fadeout 
on daylight circuits. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B4.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 763 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   263000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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