[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 1 09:17:08 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind speed again remained fast at 700km/sec though
starting to show a declining trend. The north component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was southward 5nT for much of the
UT day. The large solar region of interest (region 397 old 375),
appears to be relatively static, although a new small cluster
of spots are visible to the east of this regions trailer spots.
These spots appear to have emerged from the extensive faculae
field extending east from the trailers of 397. These spots have
been called new SEC region 399. Isolated M class activity remains
possible. A south polar extension coronal hole is visible in
SEC SXI imagery near solar central meridian and after a brief
lull in solar wind conditions, the Earth is expected to enter
the high speed wind stream from this hole around late 03/04 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 16 3443 3222
Darwin 15 3343 3233
Townsville - ---- ----
Learmonth 19 3453 3222
Canberra 19 3453 3223
Hobart 18 2453 3223
Casey(Ant) 17 4432 33-1
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 JUN :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 71 (Active)
Canberra 171 (Severe storm)
Hobart 183 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 26 4355 4344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 18 Unsettled to active
02 Jul 15 Unsettled
03 Jul 13 Unsettled
COMMENT: Coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity
beginning to decline. Effects from yet another coronal hole are
expecte dto begin 04 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected mid to high latitudes
for today then improving. Conditions may return to degraded
levels for mid to high latitudes after 04 July, due to another
coronalhole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Spread F observed local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 65 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 70 near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 70 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
today. Some southern region sites may experience mild depressions
of 10-15% after local dawn. A trend of generally improving HF
conditions is expected over next few days, before another mild
degradation starting 04 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 740 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 321000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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