[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 29 10:35:27 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low level today (28
January UT day). The largest event recorded on UT day
28 January by the time of writing this report was a B5.9
flare at 1420UT. In the late hours of 27 January a long
duration C2.4 flare was observed which started at 2142UT,
peaked at 2219UT and ended at 2250UT. A TYPE-II radio
sweep was observed at Culgoora which started at 2148UT/27
January and ended at 2201UT/27 January. This C2 flare and
the TYPE- II were associated with a partial halo CME which
seems to have been the result of a filament disappearance
near S22E22. The characteristics of the CME suggest that
it may not be significantly geo-effective on arrival.
However, a weak shock may arrive on 30 January. With the
disappearance of the coronal hole the solar wind speed has
shown a further decrease and it fluctuated between 460 km/s
and 430 km/s (approx) during the UTday. The north-south
component of the inter-planetary magnetic field showed mild
fluctuations between north and south directions. Region
266(S22W52) is still the largest region on the disk, but
it is declining now.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Mostly quiet to unsettled.
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 3322 3222
Darwin 10 3322 3222
Townsville 10 3322 3222
Learmonth 12 4222 3323
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 7 2322 2212
Casey(Ant) 19 4444 3223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JAN :
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 81 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 3211 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 8 Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible.
30 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jan 10 Quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal for most locations during the next three days.
However, minor depressions may be observed on high
latitudes on UT day 30 and 31 January, 2003.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations and depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 115 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%.
30 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%.
31 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in Australian region during the next three days. However,
short periods of minor depressions and degradations may be
observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 30 and 31 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 28200 K
Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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