[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 121/73

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jan             29 Jan             30 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             125/78
COMMENT:  Solar activity  was at  very low level  today. The 
largest event  recorded by the  time of writing  this report 
was a  B5.3 flare at  1026UT.  The coronal hole effect seems 
to have  nearly diminished as the solar wind speed has shown 
a gradual decrease from 600 km/s to 450 km/s (approx) during 
the UTday. The north-south  component of the inter-planetary 
magnetic  field remained  predominantly  northwards for most 
part of the day. Region 266(S22W39) is the largest region on 
the disk at the moment and still holds  potential to produce 
low to moderate solar activity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 27 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   4322 1433
      Darwin              15   4322 2434
      Townsville          14   4322 1433
      Learmonth           13   4321 1433
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               9   3321 1323
      Casey(Ant)          19   5433 2323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 JAN : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             17   4344 4332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Jan     8    Mostly quiet 
30 Jan     8    Mostly quiet 
COMMENT:  The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled  levels on UT day 28 January 
and come down to quiet level for the follwing two days as
the  effect of the coronal  hole seems to  have  nearly 
diminished now. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
for  most  locations  during  the next three days. However, 
minor  depressions may be  observed on high latitudes on UT 
day 28 January, 2003. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Jan    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressins and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%. 
29 Jan   107    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%. 
30 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in Australian region during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 691 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  
Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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