[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jan             31 Jan             01 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             140/94




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 29 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   2223 4434
      Darwin              15   3222 4435
      Townsville          18   1222 5445
      Learmonth           16   2223 4445
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              13   2223 4334
      Casey(Ant)          18   3443 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              70   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   3343 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jan    16    Quiet to unsettled with possible active levels. 
31 Jan    12    Quiet to unsettled. 
01 Feb     8    Quiet 
COMMENT: A partial halo CME oberved in association with the C2-flare 
on 27 January is expected to impact the Earth during 30 January. 
Only slightly elevated geomagnetic activity is expected to follow, 
otherwise activity is expected to remain mostly quiet to unsettled 
during the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next three days, however minor depressions may be observed 
for mid-high latitudes for 30 January as the result of anticipated 
slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jan   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15%.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15-30% 
                for Northern Australian regions and near predicted 
                monthly values to depressed 5-15% at times for 
                Southern regions. 
31 Jan   115    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10-20%. 
01 Feb   120    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10-20%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next three days, however minor depressions may be observed 
for mid-high latitudes for 30 January as the result of anticipated 
slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    62300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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