[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jan             21 Jan             22 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has increased to 600 km/sec, probably 
in association with a solar coronal hole. The north south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was mildly southward over 
04-16UT. No significant solar activity over past 24 hours. Solar 
region 260 (far north-east solar quadrant) produced some minor 
events. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 19 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3333 3233
      Darwin              12   3333 3223
      Townsville          12   2333 3233
      Learmonth           13   3333 3322
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              19   2443 4332
      Casey(Ant)          16   ---4 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   2233 4322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jan    18    active 
21 Jan    12    Unsettled 
22 Jan    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 17 January and 
is current for interval 18-20 January. Coronal hole induced activity 
expected to continue today. An eastward arm of this coronal hole 
is expected to produce a stronger period of activity 22-24 Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jan   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 10-25.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 10% to near predicted monthly 
      values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jan    95    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern 
                Aus. 
21 Jan   100    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern 
                Aus. 
22 Jan    95    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern 
                Aus. 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today for northern Aus region. 
Mild degradation expected next few days southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    9.4 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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