[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 20 10:15:28 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has increased to 600 km/sec, probably
in association with a solar coronal hole. The north south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was mildly southward over
04-16UT. No significant solar activity over past 24 hours. Solar
region 260 (far north-east solar quadrant) produced some minor
events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 3333 3233
Darwin 12 3333 3223
Townsville 12 2333 3233
Learmonth 13 3333 3322
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 19 2443 4332
Casey(Ant) 16 ---4 32--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JAN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 2233 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 18 active
21 Jan 12 Unsettled
22 Jan 20 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 17 January and
is current for interval 18-20 January. Coronal hole induced activity
expected to continue today. An eastward arm of this coronal hole
is expected to produce a stronger period of activity 22-24 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 10-25.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 10% to near predicted monthly
values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 95 depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern
Aus.
21 Jan 100 depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern
Aus.
22 Jan 95 depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern
Aus.
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today for northern Aus region.
Mild degradation expected next few days southern Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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