[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 19 09:15:07 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has increased to 420 km/sec, probably
in association with a solar coronal hole. The sun was relatively
quiet over past 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 2333 3234
Darwin 11 2332 3234
Townsville 14 2333 3244
Learmonth 12 3223 3334
Canberra 7 22-- ----
Hobart 11 2333 3223
Casey(Ant) 21 3--4 43--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 JAN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 2223 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 16 Unsettled to active
20 Jan 18 Unsettled to active
21 Jan 14 Unsettled, chance isolated active periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 17 January and
is current for interval 18-20 January. Coronal hole induced activity
expected next three days. An eastward arm of this coronal hole
is expected to produce a stronger period of activity 22-24 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mild depression early in UT day at some sites.
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 115 depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern
Aus.
20 Jan 110 depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern
Aus.
21 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today for northern Aus region.
Mild degradation expected next few days southern Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 46000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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