[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jan             19 Jan             20 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters seem to indicate that the Earth 
is starting to enter the first mild coronal hole stream with 
solar wind speed beginning to gradually increase after 13UT. 
Also, the ACE Phi angle, (which indicates the magnetic field 
orientation (toward /away from the Sun) of the solar wind in 
the ecliptic plane), has swung through 180 degrees, further indicating 
we have enter a changed solar wind region. Elevated solar wind 
conditions are expected over the next few days and during the 
interval 22-24 Jan due to a V shaped coronal hole. Solar regions 
have been relatively quiet over past 24 hours. A erupting filament 
was reported around 01UT on 17 Jan. LASCO C3 imagery shows a 
northward directed weak CME around 05 UT. This CME event is expected 
to have low geoeffectiveness. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2323 3322
      Darwin               9   2222 3323
      Townsville           9   -222 3313
      Learmonth            9   2222 3321
      Canberra            11   2233 3322
      Hobart              11   2333 3222
      Casey(Ant)          17   34-3 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JAN : 
      Townsville          36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2212 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jan    15    Unsettled, chance isolated active periods. 
19 Jan    16    Unsettled to active 
20 Jan    18    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 17 January and 
is current for interval 18-20 January. Coronal hole induced activity 
expected next three days. An eastward arm of this coronal hole 
is expected to produce a stronger period of activity 22-24 Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
19 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
20 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jan   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jan   100    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern 
                Aus. 
19 Jan   100    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern 
                Aus. 
20 Jan   100    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern 
                Aus. 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today for northern Aus region. 
Mild degradation expected next few days southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 347 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    59900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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