[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL: **GREEN**   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jan             22 Jan             23 Jan
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             120/72
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains in association with a solar 
coronal hole. The north Solar wind speed remains elevated at 
600km/sec. A possible weak shock was observed around 0609UT. 
Some activity on Culgoora spectrograph, with Type III activity 
observed. Background xray flux appears to be ramping up toward 
the end of UT day. Appears to be a new region rotating around 
the south-east limb at south 17. This may the return of solar 
region 243. This region on it previous rotation emerged on disk 
in the solar south-western quadrant, showed growth (no flares) 
then rotated off. Chance for isolated low level M flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 20 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3323 3333
      Darwin              10   3322 2324
      Townsville          12   2323 3333
      Learmonth           13   3323 3333
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              13   3333 2333
      Casey(Ant)          15   ---3 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              62   (Active)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             16   2234 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jan    12    Unsettled 
22 Jan    20    Unsettled to active 
23 Jan    18    Active 
COMMENT: A lull in activity is expected for today. An eastward 
arm of a coronal hole is expected to produce activity 22-24 Jan. 
Chance for isolated minor storm periods local night hours
22-24 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Improved conditions expected today. Then returning to 
mild/moderately degraded conditions at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jan   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly 
      values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly 
      values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jan   100    near predicted monthly values 
22 Jan    90    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-15% northern Aus. 
23 Jan    80    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern Aus. 
COMMENT: Mostly good HF conditions expected today. Mild degradation 
expected 22-24 Jan southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 576 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:   202000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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