[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 172/126


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jan             15 Jan             16 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            160/114
COMMENT: Minor C-class activity only was observed today, mainly 
in the latter half of the UT day. Most active regions on the 
visible disk are in a stable or declining phase of development. 
A number of regions retain the possibility of isolated M-class 
activity, with region 242 being the most active at this time. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 1223
      Darwin               6   2222 1223
      Townsville           4   2222 0113
      Learmonth            6   2222 1223
      Canberra             4   2222 0112
      Hobart               4   2222 0112
      Casey(Ant)          15   34-- 2332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary             11   2233 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained stable at around 400 km/s, 
and the interplanetary magnetic field maintained a northward 
polarity over most of the UT day, resulting in generally quiet 
geomagnetic conditions. A brief unsettled period was observed 
at high latitudes between 06-09UT. Similar conditions are 
expected today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-fair   
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Significant depressions observed in Northern Aus region 
briefly after local dawn. Difficult conditions at times due to 
persistent, intense blanketing sporadic E layer at high latitudes. 
Similar conditions expected today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jan   119

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed briefly after local dawn, enhanced 20%
      during local afternoon, otherwise near 
      predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day 
      with variable periods of disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jan   125    Depressed briefly after local dawn at low latitudes, 
                otherwise 10-20% above predicted monthly values. 
                Near predicted monthly values at high latitudes. 
15 Jan   135    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
16 Jan   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect difficult conditions at times due to widespread 
intense sporadic E layer at all latitudes, especially Antarctic 
region, during local day/evening. Isolated spread-F conditions 
may be observed at equatorial and high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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