[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 173/127


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jan             14 Jan             15 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            160/114
COMMENT: Only minor C-class flares were observed, with an optically 
uncorrelated C6 event at around 1420UT. Isolated M-class flares 
are possible today from a number of active solar regions. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2332 2223
      Darwin               7   2232 1224
      Townsville           8   2232 2222
      Learmonth            8   2222 3223
      Canberra             9   2332 2223
      Hobart              10   2333 2223
      Casey(Ant)          15   34-- 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3311 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has continued to decline over the UT 
day. There was a brief minor enhancement in solar wind speed 
around 0430UT, accompanied by a southward excursion in the 
interplanetary magnetic field. This was followed by a brief 
period of unsettled conditions at high latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal-poor    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Poor-fair      Normal         Normal-fair   
14 Jan      Fair           Normal         Normal-fair   
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Significant depressions observed in Northern Aus region 
during local day/evening. Difficult conditions at times due to 
blanketing sporadic E layer at all latitudes, especially N Aus 
and Antarctica. Similar conditions expected today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jan    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 10-20% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jan    90    Depressed by 10-20% at low latitudes, otherwise 
                near predicted monthly values. 
14 Jan   110    near predicted monthly values 
15 Jan   120    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Significant depressions possible again today in Northern 
Aus region. Expect difficult conditions at times due to widespread 
intense sporadic E layer at all latitudes, especially N. Aus 
and Antarctica during local day/evening, and isolated spread-F 
conditions at high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    71800 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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