[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 189/142


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            195/147            190/143
COMMENT: Only isolated minor C-class flares were observed today. 
Culgoora Radiospectrograph recorded significant radio noise at 
times, probably in association with the currently elevated sunspot 
numbers. Regions 242, 247 and 251 have M-class flare potential. 
The currently geoeffective coronal hole will rotate off the visible 
disk today. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3211 2224
      Darwin               7   3211 2223
      Townsville           6   3211 1224
      Learmonth            6   3211 1224
      Canberra             6   3220 2214
      Hobart               7   3221 2214
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--3 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   2222 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Coronal hole wind stream effects have declined over 
the UT day. Bz has remained predominantly northward, and only 
isolated active periods were observed at high latitudes. Geomagnetic 
activity should decrease to nominal levels over the next 24 hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Fair           Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Fair           Normal         Fair          
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Equatorial/Northern Aus region mildly depressed after 
local dawn. Isolated disturbance observed S. Aus/Antarctic regions 
in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jan    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Slightly below predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan   100    near predicted monthly values 
13 Jan   120    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
14 Jan   130    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Northern Aus region mildly depressed after local dawn 
today. Isolated intense sporadic E observed in S. Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
regions during local day/evening. Isolated disturbances possible 
today at high latitudes due to continuing weak coronal hole wind 
stream effects. These effects should decay to nominal levels over 
the next 24 hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   153000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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