[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 185/138


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            195/147            200/152
COMMENT: Solar region 247 has shown growth in magnetic complexity. 
Regions 242, 247 and 251 have M-class flare potential. The currently 
geoeffective coronal hole is now located close to the west solar 
limb, and will rotate off the visible disk in the next day or 
so. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3222 3334
      Darwin              10   3223 2234
      Townsville          11   3222 3335
      Learmonth           10   3222 2334
      Canberra            11   3222 3335
      Hobart              12   3233 3324
      Casey(Ant)          23   5--- 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              7   2211 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan    12    Unsettled 
12 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed under the influence of a coronal hole 
wind stream appears to have peaked at the mid-range value of 
field has remained predominantly northward, with significant 
amplitude fluctuations, before commencing a very gradual southward 
trend after 12 UT. Isolated minor storm periods were observed 
at high latitudes prior to 12 UT. Isolated minor storm periods 
are possible today at high latitudes. Coronal hole disturbance 
effects should decay over the next 24-48 hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Northern Aus region mildly depressed after local dawn. 
Isolated disturbance observed S. Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions in 
association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jan   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Isolated depressions during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan   110    Enhanced 10-20% low to mid latitudes, depressed 
                5-15% high latitudes. 
12 Jan   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
13 Jan   145    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Northern Aus and Antarctic regions mildly depressed 
after local dawn today. Widespread and ocassionally intense sporadic 
E observed in S. Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions during local day/evening. 
Mild degradation/disturbance possible today at high latitudes 
due to continuing weak coronal hole wind stream effects. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 283 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    16800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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