[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 164/118


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jan             16 Jan             17 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            155/109
COMMENT: The major event today was a C6 level flare at about 
0630UT, which was not optically correlated. The most recently 
active solar region, region 242, has now rotated off the west 
limb. Limb activity has been observed in the vicinity of some 
newly arriving regions. There remains a minor possibility of 
isolated M-class activity today. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3332 3223
      Darwin              13   3332 ----
      Townsville          11   3332 2234
      Learmonth            8   ---- 3212
      Canberra             7   2--- ----
      Hobart              17   24-- ----
      Casey(Ant)          11   3--3 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   3212 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A brief period of IMF Bz polarity fluctuatiion occurred 
between about 04-06UT. This was followed one hour later by a 
period of unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions at high 
latitudes. A south polar coronal hole is approaching central 
meridian, but does not appear extensive in area or latitude. 
Recurrence suggests the possibility of unsettled to active 
conditions early next week. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Low latitude MUF's depressed briefly after local dawn. 
Persistent and sometimes intense sporadic E observed at mid to 
high latitudes local day/evening. Generally good HF conditions 
expected today, with periods of disturbance at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jan   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values. 


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jan   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Jan   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Jan   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected today. Periods 
of disturbance possible during local day/evening in 
S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to transient intense sporadic 
E layer. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    55400 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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