[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    0750UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 163/117


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jan             09 Jan             10 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            170/124            175/129
COMMENT: Solar region 242, located just south-west of the centre 
of the solar disk, produced the M1 and is showing growth. Two 
new regions have appeared on teh south-east limb and a region 
group may return to the north-east limb in coming days. Solar 
wind parameters near nominal. A coronal hole high speed wind 
stream from this hole is expected 09-10 Jan. Effects expected 
to be mild. Isolated low level M class activity probable. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2212 1222
      Darwin               5   2211 1223
      Townsville           4   1211 1223
      Learmonth            5   1212 1222
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               5   1212 1222
      Casey(Ant)          13   34-3 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 JAN : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              7   0211 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jan     7    Quiet 
09 Jan    12    Unsettled 
10 Jan    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to cause 
active periods 09/10 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected next 9-10 Jan at 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jan   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jan   110    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
09 Jan   110    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
10 Jan   110    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    73200 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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