[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 162/116


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jan             08 Jan             09 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            170/124            175/129
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters near nominal over past 24 hours. 
A coronal hole high speed wind stream from this hole is expected 
09-10 Jan. Effects expected to be mild. Background solar xray 
flux increasing to just above C1 level over past 24 hours. It 
appears that this is due to the return of old solar region 226 
to the south-east limb. This region was a magnetically complex 
and moderately large region on its previous disk transit. However, 
it produced no significant flare activity. Other regions may 
return to the north-east limb in coming days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2111 0122
      Darwin               5   2221 1122
      Townsville           4   2110 013-
      Learmonth            3   1211 0122
      Canberra             2   2110 020-
      Hobart               3   2121 0111
      Casey(Ant)           8   ---2 1233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 JAN : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   2222 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jan     6    Quiet 
08 Jan     7    Quiet 
09 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected next 2-3 days. 
A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to cause active 
periods 09/10 Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jan   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jan   110    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
08 Jan   110    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
09 Jan   110    about 10% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 431 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    76800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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